Zone of Shield: Deforestation models with the re-opening of BR 319 indicate sceneries with big deforestation expansion starting through the edges of the road, occupying in few years practically all river extension between the rivers Madeira and Purus (Laurance et al., 2001b; Soares-Filho et al., 2006). An important change that would reduce the expansion of deforestation starting from the route, not included in the models is the creation of a series of protected areas. On the other side there’s also in the models omission of many factors that would lead to more deforestation. One is the migration along the road from a tip to another, taking migrants from Rondônia to areas already connected to Manaus by roads, including the area between the rivers Solimões and Negro that will have access through a new bridge in Manaus, the Agribusiness District of the Zona Franca of Manaus (located on north of Manaus) and the Roraima state (e.g., Barni et al., 2009) . Another factor that would argue the deforestation is the plan to construct a series of lateral roads, giving access though the highway to all the headquarters of de cities on the rivers Madeira e Purus. One of the roads would cross the rivers Purus in Tapuã, following to Coari, Tefé, Juruá, and so opening the big bloc of the intact forest in the west part of Amazon State (Fearnside & Graça, 2006b, 2009).
The highway BR 319 EIA denies the existence of these plans affirming that: “besides the exception of the highway BR 319, none of this other roads is on the Federal Government plans”. (UFAM, 2009, Vol. 1, p. 58).
But, in the website of the National Department of Infrastructure of the Transports (DNIT) the map of the planned roads shows these roads (Brasil, DNIT, 2009). The lateral roads would neutralize big part of the benefits previewed forest reserves on stopping the deforestation. The barrier of the reserves along both sides of the highway is named Zone of Shield, but if the shield is perforated by the lateral roads, the deforesters will be simply taken to the other side of the line of reserves. In the case of the west side there’s a big area that would be exposed in the middle of Amazon on the west of Purus river. This area that has the size of Rondônia State, is a public land with no protection of any kind, as shows the macrozoning of Amazon State. This kind of land is the most vulnerable to invasion by the squatters, farmers and the “without land” ones.
How stay the Reserves throughout the highway BR 319: The reserves throughout the BR 319 were created inside an area of provisory administrative limitation (ALAP), created in 2006 to facilitate the implantation of reserves. A simulation of this road effects and the reserves was made requested by the Civil House (Aguiar, 2006; Câmara, 2007; Rede Temática GEOMA, 2006). The conclusion was that the road wasn’t going to increase deforestation and would even have a benefic effect, attracting the deforestation from the middle of the forest to the edge of the road as if it was a magnet, and so, relieving the pressure over the reserves and other areas far from the road. At the same time the reserves weren’t going to reduce deforestation, but only make it happen in another location, in this case, areas of Manaus and Boca do Acre. What happens is that all these conclusions are based in the artifact of a simulation method, and therefore, they don’t represent a real phenomenon. The simulation was made presuming a predetermined tax of deforestation in Amazon as one all. Therefore, doesn’t matter in terms of total deforestation, if it’s created a reserve or opened a road, it would have 100% of “emptying” of the reserves , that is, loss of all climatic benefits for the displacement of the deforestation to other places.
Ahead of the topics above there are no argumentative guarantees, according to Philip Fearnside.